HISPANIC NEWS ANALYSIS

The State of Comprehensive Immigration Reform and a Plan of Action

PHOENIX (By Jon Garrido, Hispanic News) May 16, 2006 — President Bush is calling for "comprehensive" immigration reform that combines tough border enforcement with a guest worker program and a path for illegal immigrants already here to work toward citizenship. People who watched the speech seemed to improve their opinion of Bush's immigration policies

Bush called for the short-term deployment of up to 6,000 National Guard troops to serve in a supporting temporary role along the U.S.-Mexico border. The Guard will be replaced as more Border Police are hired and trained.

For the first time, Bush endorsed a proposal to give illegal immigrants already in the United States a path to work toward citizenship.

Critics, most of them in the GOP, dismiss such a legalization process as "amnesty." Supporters reject that term, describing the process as "earned citizenship."

In his address, Bush publicly endorsed the idea, calling it a "rational middle ground" between a policy of giving all illegal immigrants "automatic" citizenship or deporting them, which Bush said would be "neither wise nor realistic."

"People who meet these conditions should be able to apply for citizenship, but approval would not be automatic, and they would have to wait in line behind those who played by the rules and followed the law," Bush said.

Bush sought to reassure both sides with his speech last night, and in doing so he attempted to define the middle ground in a debate where consensus has been difficult. By ordering National Guard troops to the border, he was determined to show conservatives and House Republicans his belief that border security is a prerequisite to any legislative solution. But on the most contentious issue before Congress, Bush came closer to the approach now on the Senate floor, saying he favors a path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants while rejecting either mass deportation or automatic amnesty for those now here illegally.

"America can be a lawful society and a welcoming society at the same time," he said. "We will fix the problems created by illegal immigration, and we will deliver a system that is secure, orderly and fair."

That he found himself in such a position, on an issue about which he has spoken passionately ever since he bucked anti-immigration voices within his party as governor of Texas, reflects the power and passion of those opposed to comprehensive legislation. It also underscores that he comes to the debate at this moment in a weakened position, particularly among conservatives in his own party.

Bush lost control of this debate late last year, when Republicans in the House passed a bill that was really one of the more extreme bills passed in American history that would make felons of the 12 million illegal immigrants in the country as well as anyone who tries to help them.

The House bill has inflamed opinion within the Hispanic community and mobilized a nascent political movement, one that over time will grow in size and strength as younger Hispanics begin to register and vote in larger and larger numbers. Their political allegiance is now up for grabs, and the great danger Bush and his advisers see in a stalemate is that the Democrats will be able to claim much of that vote.

It's no longer an immigration issue, it's whether the United States welcomes Hispanics.

Political strategists may debate which of those forces could be more important in deciding close races in November, the anti-illegal-immigrant activists who were encouraged by conservative Lou Dobbs and talk radio rallied behind the Minuteman movement, which sprang up as a citizen border security corps, or the huge throngs of immigrant supporters who were mobilized by Hispanic radio and protested in the streets last month. But there is little disagreement that in the longer term, a party seen as hostile to immigrants, legal or illegal, could pay a stiff price.

The negative role model cited universally is former California governor Pete Wilson (R), who used the anti-illegal-immigration issue to win reelection in 1994 only to see his party suffer in subsequent elections. California went from being a swing state to a solid Democratic state, mainly because of the overwhelming support of Hispanics.

Bush's instincts on immigration are well known and long stated, but his political standing has reduced his leverage just as the congressional debate is nearing its most difficult moment. White House officials believe that the prime-time address reinserts the president when he is needed most, but his most challenging test will come later this summer, when House and Senate negotiators are likely to try to compromise their differences.

This clearly is the minefield and the outcome is anyone's guess. Each side now begins to play full court press.

House Republicans pushed through an immigration bill last year that was devoted to border enforcement and had no provisions for temporary workers. The Senate failed to pass a bill earlier this year.

Bush timed his speech to a renewed effort by the Senate to pass an immigration bill.

The Senate resumed debate Monday on immigration legislation that would create a mechanism by which illegal immigrants could proceed toward legal status, and eventual citizenship, by working for a number of years, paying fines, undergoing a background check and learning English.

The House and Senate now appear to be on a collision course, with the Senate aiming at comprehensive legislation that would include a path to citizenship for many of the illegal immigrants already here, and House Republicans determined to block anything that they believe smacks of amnesty. Bush insisted last night that what he supports is not amnesty.

With the Senate agreement Thursday to bring the immigration bill back to the floor Monday, Senate leaders practically guaranteed contentious, protracted negotiations with the House. Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) had said he would give up parliamentary delaying tactics only if he received assurances that the conference committee would not be stacked against a final bill that tightened border security, offered a new temporary work permit for future immigrants and granted illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) had to assure conservatives opposed to such legislation that they would have a seat at the table as well.

What they agreed to was an ideological split. Senate negotiators will include some of the strongest supporters of the compromise legislation: Sens. Graham, Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) and Ken Salazar (D-Colo.) But the committee will also include three of its most ardent opponents, Sens. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), John Cornyn (R-Tex.) and Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.).

Across the table from them will be House Judiciary Committee Chairman F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R-Wis.), the main author of the House immigration bill, who is considered one of the toughest negotiators the House has to offer.

"Everyone is skeptical that anything can come out of conference," conceded a House Judiciary Committee aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she was not cleared to speak to the media. "We've never had bills as divergent as these."

Republicans who support the president on the issue say Bush must create the momentum for those negotiations by forcefully making the case that it is unrealistic to think 12 million illegal immigrants can be deported, and by making serious commitments to seal the borders.

A tough border security bill with a temporary worker program has the support of a majority of Republicans and enough Democrats to secure House passage. But the idea illegal immigrants should also be offered a path to citizenship, embraced by most senators and by the president, will still give most House Republicans pause. Sensenbrenner has often voiced he is dead set against it.

Sensenbrenner becomes pivotal in determining the outcome of comprehensive immigration reform. He controls the House Republican Conference. With the Senate Republicans in the majority of the Senate Conference, the probability is high the Senate will move closer to the House position on approving security over a guest worker program.

This outcome needs to be influenced. The question then becomes how do we influence this outcome?

Hispanics have only one course of action available and that is to direct our actions to Sensenbrenner.

To suggest Sensenbrenner's constituents can be persuaded to pressure Sensenbrenner is not a viable course of action. Sensenbrenner is fully supported by his Wisconsin constituents.

The only viable action is to pick up the gauntlet of the Kimberly Clark boycott and not only in voice support the boycott but actually implement the boycott everywhere in the Americas.

To be successful we need to mobilize all Hispanics/Latinos in the Americas to take action. This also includes ostracizing all hate mongers who would torpedo comprehensive immigration reform.

The leaders of the pack remain the minutemen and Lou Dobbs.

Two Latino women appeared yesterday at CNN. The contrast between both women was as day and night. One appeared on the CNN Situation Room and the other on Lou Dobbs Tonight. One was polished and firm not allowing to be interrupted as she answered questions. Univision anchor Maria Elena Salinas put forth articulate answers on the need for security and how to proceed in arriving at comprehensive immigration reform. The other woman appeared on Lou Dobbs Tonight. This woman fell prey as she always does into being led by the nose to answer questions put forth by Dobbs of questions Dobbs already as a answer. Why any Hispanic would allow to be used to promote the Lou Dobbs Show is unclear other than vanity.