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Swing House Districts and Notable Races

Vulnerable incumbents and open seats

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed here, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances.

There are currently 30 open seats—28 incumbents who will not be seeking re-election plus 2 vacancies, both of which will be filled before the general election. Of the 28 open seats, 19 are held by Republicans, 8 are held by Democrats and 1 is held by an independent. One of the vacant seats which will be filled before the general election was held by a Republican and the other was held by a Democrat.

Notable races

Arizona

  • Arizona's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Rick Renzi (R) is well-known for his strong, arguably extreme conservative positions in a district that is moderately conservative at best. In 2002 he won only 49% of the vote, elected by just 6,000 votes. Renzi gained national attention in 2004 when he engaged in a screaming match against moderate Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois over the issue of embryonic stem cell research, which Renzi considers an act of murder. According to media reports, Renzi choked Kirk during the incident. Both Congressmen have since denied the reports. Renzi has also stated that he will not return some $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, despite calls from Democrats to do so. Liberal advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has included Renzi in its list of the 13 most corrupt members of the House of Representatives. However, Renzi's leading opponent dropped out of the race and none of the Democrats currently running are considered viable candidates.
  • Arizona's 5th congressional district— Incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R) appeared on his way to an easy reelection this election cycle, but that has changed. Democrats have a locally well-known candidate in state Senator Harry Mitchell, a former Mayor of Tempe. Mitchell has been a political force in his home town, one of the largest communities in the district, and Democrats are enthusiastic about his candidacy. A May 9 Survey USA poll shows Hayworth leading by only 50% to 45%. The district Hayworth represents leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Republicans are concerned, but point out that Mitchell has gotten off to a late start and that Hayworth will be well-funded.
  • Arizona's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Kolbe (R) announced on November 23, 2005 that he would not seek re-election in 2006 [1]. His district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs of Tucson, is Republican-leaning, but competitive: President Bush won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Also, the fact that it has been electing Kolbe, an openly gay Republican, for 2 decades, often with high margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a social conservative stronghold. The Democratic candidate former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords who resigned from the Arizona Legislature on December 1, 2005 in preparation for her Congressional campaign. Republican Randy Graf, a former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for their party's nomination in 2004, is also running on the Republican ticket.

California

  • California's 11th congressional district— Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. However, Pombo has used his chairmanship of the House Natural Resources Committee to pursue an aggressive program of anti-environmental legislation, including a draft bill that would have repealed the Endangered Species Act. The considerable amount of negative attention this has drawn from supporters of the environmentalist philosophy, may spur particular efforts to vote Pombo out of office. Pombo has also been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff and is currently under investigation, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election; he launched his campaign for the 2006 election early in 2005, ensuring that his campaign will be better prepared and pose a more formidable challenge this time around. Another Democratic candidate for the seat, Steve Filson, is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Additionally, Pombo will be challenged for the Republican nomination by former Representative Pete McCloskey, one of the co-authors of the Endangered Species Act. The eleventh district is located in the San Joaquin Valley well east of the San Francisco Bay Area and leans Republican. A recent poll shows Pombo losing to both Democratic challengers in November—Democratic challenger Steve Filson 49-41 and Jerry McNerney, 46-42[1]
  • California's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Bill Thomas, a prominent and influential member of the Republican caucus, is retiring after more than 25 years in Congress. He represents agricultural Central Valley, a Republican stronghold where 52% of voters are registered Republicans and 30% are Democrats. He won re-election in 2004 unopposed. Republican Leader of the California Assembly, Kevin McCarthy has announced his run for the GOP nomination. McCarthy is very popular in the Central Valley.[2]
  • California's 24th congressional district— Incumbent Elton Gallegly (R) originally announced his retirement just hours before the filing deadline, much to the shock of the local political establishment. The 62-year-old ten-term congressman cited "unresolved health issues" for his decision. Gallegly had already filed and would have remained on the ballot. The late withdrawal meant that no additional candidates could file for the seat. After substantial pressure, coming even from the White House, Gallegly announced he would indeed run for one more term after receiving clearance from his physician. [2] It is unclear how voters will view the retirement/unretirement. However, Gallegly handily won with 60 percent of the vote here in his last election and the district supported George W. Bush 56-44 in 2004. The district covers inland areas of Santa Barbara County and Ventura County in the Los Angeles suburbs, including Thousand Oaks, California. Rev. Jill Martinez is running on the Democrats' side. Michael Tenenbaum is facing Gallegly in the Republican primary.
  • California's 26th congressional district— Incumbent David Dreier (R) was largely considered a political moderate until recent years, in which he drifted sharply to the right in pursuit of a higher position in Republican House leadership. Raw Story reported that he was passed over because he is homosexual and he was formally outed in 2004 by Doug Ireland in the L.A. Weekly. Dreier has never discussed his sexual orientation. [3] Due to these rumors and his abandonment of his previously moderate positions, his electoral margins have thinned significantly, and he won only 54% of the vote in 2004 against an openly homosexual Democratic candidate, Cynthia Matthews, whose rhetoric was denounced by the national Democratic party when she chastised Dreier for not coming out. The district has also had a slight narrowing of the Republican registration advantage since 2002. [4] Sonny Sardo a local businessman running on an anti-illegal immigration platform will run against Dreier in the GOP primary. Matthews and Russ Warner will face off in the Democratic primary.
  • California's 50th congressional district— (Main: California 50th congressional district special election, 2006. By November 7, 2006, there should be an incumbent representative.) Republican Duke Cunningham announced on July 14, 2005 that he would not seek a ninth term in the House. On November 28, 2005, he resigned his house seat after confessing to taking bribes from defense contractors. A primary special election to fill the vacancy took place on April 11, 2006. Since no candidate won 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held on June 6, 2006 between the top vote-getter of each party. The main candidates are Republican Brian Bilbray, a former Congressman, and Democrat Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board Trustee. These candidates are also running in the simultaneous primary election for the following full term that will be decided in the November general election. This district includes the northern suburbs of San Diego and leans Republican. Busby garnered 37% against Cunningham's 58% in 2004. Busby won 44% in the primary special election, which is ahead of the normal Democratic vote in the area but clearly short of the 50%+1 majority she needed to win outright. Recent polling conducted by a Republican firm has shown Busby leading Bilbray by 43% to 37%;[9] a poll by Survey USA shows Busby and Bilbray tied at 45% each,[10] and one by a Democratic pollster puts Busby ahead at 47% to 40%.[11] Complicating the race is the fact that the primary for the general election happens to be on the same day as the special election runoff. The more conservative Eric Roach, who lost to moderate Bilbray in the primary special election by a margin of 15.3% to 14.5%, will be on the primary election ballot though he has announced he is not "aggressively" campaigning.[12] Millionaire Bill Hauf has started seriously campaigning against Bilbray in the primary, which could pull resources away from Bilbray in the runoff.[13] Hauf had put over a million dollars of his own money into his run in the primary special election.

Colorado

  • Colorado's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50% to 47% margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver. Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (though narrowly won by President Bush) seat nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado. Currently Republican Businessman Scott Tipton is planning to run.
  • Colorado's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Joel Hefley (R), the dean of the Colorado delegation to the House of Representatives, announced on February 16, 2006 that he will be retiring from his seat and not seeking an 11th term. This district has a very strong Republican tilt, so strong that it has not elected a Democrat to represent it since its creation in 1876. Former El Paso County Sheriff John Anderson Colorado Springs Mayor Lionel Rivera, state Senator Doug Lamborn, recently retired Major General Bentley Rayburn, and former Congressional aide Jeff Crank are the declared Republican candidates thus far in the race. Democrat Jay Fawcett, who served 20 years in the Air Force and fought in the 1991 Gulf War, is the first Democrat to announce that he is running. Because of the conservative leaning nature of the district, which President Bush won with 65% in 2004 and reelected Hefley with 71%, it is largely believed that the winner of the Republican primary will emerge victorious in the general election against any potential Democratic opponent.[3]
  • Colorado's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R), a firebrand in the Republican caucus, has spent the last two years making numerous controversial statements and taking stances at odds with some of his electorate, such as opposing gun control in a district which experienced the Columbine Massacre, a stance which nearly cost him reelection previously. He won with 60% of the vote in 2004, however his opponent in 2006 will be liberal ex-marine Bill Winter. Tancredo's chances at reelection are very high despite his verbal gaffes because he represents a solidly Republican district that gave President Bush his highest vote total in the state, however he has alienated much of the Republican leadership by harshly criticizing George W. Bush's stances on illegal immigration, climaxing in a "screaming match" with Karl Rove at the White House. The position of the GOP on Tancredo remains ambiguous, and whether they will attempt to remove him or support him is currently unknown. Tancredo recently remarked that if U.S. Senator Wayne Allard were to retire in 2008, he (Tancredo) would run to succeed him.

Connecticut

  • Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-leaning district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell, the 2004 nominee, is challenging Shays again. Additionally, there is reportedly significant support, among those in his party who are dissatisfied with his moderate stance, for a more conservative Republican to challenge Shays in the Republican primary - a move that, if it succeeded, would dramatically raise the chances for a Democrat to win the general election. However, no other Republican as yet has announced an intention to run.
  • Connecticut's 5th congressional district— Although Incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge in 2002 where she won with just 54%, she is still a Republican in an increasingly Democratic leaning district. John Kerry won the district in 2004 and Al Gore won it when it she represented the 6th District in 2000. She faces a credible challenge from state Senator Chris Murphy. Johnson is popular in the district, but with Bush's popularity in New England at rock bottom, a Democratic victory is possible. In fact, Johnson very nearly lost in 1996.

Florida

  • Florida's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, and many had not expected this seat to be very competitive as it is a Republican-leaning district located on Florida's Gulf coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirakis, has announced that he will run for his father's seat. He appears to be the front runner in his party, though he faces a primary challenge from chiropractor David Langheier. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the likely Democratic nominee. After Busansky reported stronger than expected first-quarter fundraising, many have begun categorizing this race as competitive. Due in part to Busansky's fundraising, the DCCC has chosen her as one of 22 candidates that have the potential to pick up seats, and will likely provide Busansky with a high amount of funding.
  • Florida's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent Clay Shaw (R) has been elected to twelve terms in the house and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970's. He is seeking reelection to his seat. But many Democrats hope that this time around it will be unlucky number 13. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000, from state Senator Elaine Bloom, who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf, and scored a somewhat easier reelections in 2002, and 2004. But now he is once again a top target of the Democrats - this time, state Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close, as Klein is a good fundraiser, and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. Shaw has been criticized for refusing to return $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004, winning 63% of the vote, John Kerry still defeated George W. Bush by a margin of 50% to 48% in the district. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 dropped out before the election. The revelation that Shaw has lung cancer makes the race even more unpredictable.

Georgia

Main article: Georgia United States House elections, 2006
  • Georgia's 3rd congressional district— A Republican mid-decade redistricting made this Macon-based district more compact and somewhat more Republican. Democratic Incumbent Jim Marshall faces a very tough race against former Congressman Mac Collins, who represented an adjoining district from 1993 to 2005. Marshall was reelected with 63% in 2004, but in 2002 he won by only 50.5% to 49.5%. This is one of the most competitive House races in the nation. Some think that Marshall hurt his chances when he voted against a Congressional resolution to condemn the radical Palestinian group Hamas.

Hawaii

Idaho

In the May 23 primary ultra-conservative state representative Bill Sali edged out a crowded field to win the Republican nomination with 26 percent of the vote. Attorney Larry Grant won the Democratic nomination. Sali is an extremely controversial figure in Idaho politics who clashed repeatedly with Republican leadership in the Idaho Legislature. He also ran a lot of negative ads against his fellow Republicans to win the nomination. All this may give Grant a boost in the general election, although Sali remains favored given the GOP tilt of the area and the popular Otter at the top of the ticket.
Other candidates include Constitution Party nominee Paul Smith and independent Dave Olson. A new party called the United Party [14] has also fielded a candidate, newspaper publisher and small business owner Andy Hedden-Nicely. These candidates are not expected to make a significant showing in the race.

Illinois

  • Illinois's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Henry Hyde (R) is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Iraq war veteran L. Tammy Duckworth, with substantial backing from the state and national Democratic establishment, won her party's primary. State Senator Peter Roskam is running as a Republican. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties. Democratic strength in the district has grown in recent years, but the balance still tilts to the Republicans. Duckworth was damaged when she won the Democratic primary only narrowly and Republicans attacked her for not living in the district.
  • Illinois's 17th congressional district— This western Illinois district, which includes Moline, was unexpectedly vacated when longtime liberal Congressman Lane Evans announced that he would not seek reelection due to a decline in his health. The Democratic nominee will be selected by county party organizations. The Republican nominee, former newscaster Andrea Lane Zinga, ran against Evans in 2004 and won 39% of the vote. The district leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so.

Indiana

  • Indiana's 2nd congressional district— Chris Chocola (R) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote. Chocola was first elected in 2002 by a 50-46% margin. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who lost to Chocola 54-45% in 2004, is running again in 2006. Democrats blame Donnelly's 2004 loss on a lack of funding from the national party that allowed Chocola to outspend Donnelly by a two-to-one margin. President Bush has visited the South Bend district seven times since 2000, suggesting that Republicans may be concerned that Chocola is potentially vulnerable.
  • Indiana's 8th congressional district— John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating, is being challenged by Vanderburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. In a district that usually votes Republican in national elections but frequently supports Democrats locally, Hostettler may have to moderate himself after several verbal blunders in Congress, the most infamous being a widely denounced statement that, "Like a moth to a flame the Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal.[15] The district has been nicknamed "The Bloody Eighth" due to its frequent ousting of incumbent Congressmen, including in 1958, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, and 1994.
  • Indiana's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) defeated incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes in 2004. Hill has announced he hopes to reclaim his seat. He faces anti-war challenger Gretchen Clearwater in the May 2nd primary. Sodrel is a self-described staunch Republican party loyalist in an evenly divided district. Republicans point out that Hill had the advantages of incumbency in 2004 and won't this time.

Iowa

  • Iowa's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including large cities such as Dubuque and Clinton. State Representative Bill Dix, businessman Mike Whalen, and former state party chairman Brian Kennedy are running as Republicans, while attorney Bruce Braley and others are running as Democrats. Democrat Bill Gluba ran three separate times against Nussle, garnering larger percentages of the vote with each election. Nussle was reelected in 2004 with 55% of the vote but John Kerry won the district in the same year, signaling that the open seat will be very competitive come November 2006.
  • Iowa's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Leach (R) is one of the most liberal republicans in the house. His district in 2004 was won with a large margin of 12% by John Kerry, making it the largest margin won by Kerry in a district represented by a Republican. It is quite possible that Leach might face competition in the Republican Primary. He faces a challenge from David Loebsack.
  • Iowa's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a close reelection in 2004 in a competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti plans to challenge him. Boswell's age (70), severe health problems, and his breaking a term-limit pledge he made when he first ran for office could factor into the race.

Kansas

Kentucky

  • Kentucky's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state Representative Mike Weaver, whose background in business and the military make it hard to portray him as a liberal. However, Weaver's fundraising has been disappointing.
  • Kentucky's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Anne Northup (R) is a target for the Democrats every election; in 2004 and 2000, John Kerry and Al Gore both won her congressional district by two percent. While Northup has generally run close races, she won 60% of the vote in 2004 agaist a highly touted opponent. Redistricting after the 2000 census added a few more Republicans to the district, according to Congressional Quarterly. The Democratic candidate this year is John Yarmuth, the founder of local free publication the LEO. Democrats claim this race is winnable, but Yarmouth's liberal views and articles give Northup plenty of material for negative ads. See the article on the district for more on the race.
  • Kentucky's 4th congressional district— First-term incumbent Geoff Davis (R) is being challenged by Democratic ex-Rep. Ken Lucas, who held the seat previously to Davis. Lucas defeated Davis 51% to 48% in 2002, and retired in 2004, adhering to a pledge of serving only three consecutive terms in the House. Lucas was among the most conservative Democrats in Congress and remains well-known in the district. His campaign is hobbed by a late start, however.
  • Kentucky's 6th congressional district— Strong victories in a 2003 special election to fill the Congressional seat of now-Governor Ernie Fletcher and in the 2004 election make Incumbent Ben Chandler (D) difficult to beat in a district known for supporting incumbency. Chandler could conceivably face difficulty, however, if speculation increases that he may pursue being Governor of Kentucky in 2007. He is being challenged by marketing executive Elaine Carlson.

Louisiana

  • Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Congressmen William Jefferson (D) has been under intense investigation and the FBI has claimed that it has videotaped him accepting $100,000 in bribes. The police also found money in Jefferson's freezer that was hidden in frozen food products. While it is almost definitely unlikely this district will switch to the Republican Party, there is a strong possibility of a primary race here. The seat is located in heavily Democratic New Orleans, No Republican has represented this district since reconstruction.
  • Louisiana's 3rd congressional district— In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His is a swing district in southeast Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans. The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of less effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. However, many voters (particularly African-Americans and the poor, two strongly Democratic demographics) have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences, and it's unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who finished a close third in the 2004 open primary.
  • Louisiana's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles, who lost to John in the 1996 runoff. However, this district was heavily damaged by Hurricane Rita, and it is not known how many voters have temporarily – or permanently – moved elsewhere.

Maryland

Main article: Maryland Congressional election, 2006

Michigan

  • Michigan's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) did not have a great campaign in 2004. Though he won with 58% of the vote, this was only after he outspent his opponent (attorney Steve Reifman) by over a 10 to one ratio. For a 7-term incumbent, this is less than impressive. Also, the fact that Bush barely won his district with 50% of the vote shows that it is no longer a Republican stronghold. Knollenberg is very vulnerable this year. Radio talk host Nancy Skinner is the leading democratic challenger. Skinner has raised a considerable amount of money compared to the other candidates in this race. She has been endorsed by the UAW, AFL-CIO, and NOW.

Minnesota

  • Minnesota's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent John Kline (R) was reelected in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, winning by a margin of 57% to 40%. Things were expected to be very different in 2006. Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence initially garnered media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting caused his defeat by Kline in 2002). However, Rowley's credibility was damaged when her campaign website showed an image of Kline's face imposed on Colonel Klink from Hogan's Heroes. After widespread criticism, she publicly apologized. Veteran state Senator Sharon Marko launched a campaign for the Democratic primary in February 2006 and was believed to be the party favorite. However, on March 29, Marko dropped out of the race.
  • Minnesota's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. He won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2004 in a district that went for John Kerry by 71%. It is strongly Democratic and no one expects it to change hands. The state Democratic Party has endorsed state Representative Keith Ellison, while Sabo has endorsed his Chief of Staff, Mike Erlandson. While the Republicans have said they will contest the seat by running a "fun, spirited campaign", they have openly admitted doubts that they will capture it in the Democratic stronghold of Minneapolis.[16]
  • Minnesota's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. The Independence Party of Minnesota candidate for the House seat is student and political newcomer John Binkowski, a longtime resident of St. Mary's Point, Minnesota. The Republican nominee for the House seat is State Senator Michele Bachmann, an outspoken social conservative. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, is the Democratic nominee again. She originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat; then campaigned for the U.S. Senate instead; then abruptly dropped out of the Senate race and launched a second campaign for the Sixth District House seat. At the party's nominating convention. she defeated Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former Mayor of Blaine, Minnesota and a former minister who is opposed to abortion and gun control. Tinklenberg had entered the race only after receiving Wetterling's assurance that she would not be running, and he was supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which considered him to be more electable due to his moderate views. Now the liberal Watterling has to win over his former supporters, some of whom are angry about her going back on her word. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Jesse Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties. This district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
  • Minnesota's 8th congressional district— Sixteen Term Incumbent Jim Oberstar (D) has had little trouble for re-election ever since he's won his first term and while the seat has been relatively safe and hasn't had a Republican represent this district since 1947, Oberstar faces a potential challenge from former Republican U.S. Senator Rod Grams.

Mississippi

  • Mississippi's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Bennie Thompson (D) is facing an aggressive primary challenge from state Representative Chuck Espy, son of former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy. The winner of the primary will face Republican Tchula Mayor Yvonne Brown. Both Epsy and Brown have criticized Thompson for leaving the House Agriculture Committee. The distrcit is over three-fifths African-American and solidly Democratic, though Republicans occasionally win local elections in the area.

Nebraska

  • Nebraska's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Jeff Fortenberry (R) won his first term in 2004 with 54% of the vote in the wake of the retirement of moderate and popular Republican congressmen Doug Bereuter whom was very critical of the religious right's growing influence on the party. Fortenberry is much more conservative than his predecessor, echoed by the fact that he won a relatively small margin of victory in a district that previously sent Bereuter to congress by margins of 60% - 65% and reelected George W. Bush by 66% in 2004. A Green Party activist drew away a full 3% of the vote last time, and Democrats are mobilizing for another campaign. Former Nebraska lieutenant governor Maxine Moul filed papers in January 2006 to challenge Fortenberry.[4]

Nevada

  • Nevada's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. In 2004 he was reelected with 67% of the vote. His wife, state Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, is running for his seat, as has Secretary of State Dean Heller and conservative state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is solidly Republican (since its creation in 1983 it has never elected a Democrat to represent it). Even so, in national elections the district tends to vote for the party that is favored by the national political climate, which is trending Democratic thus far. In addition, Democratic candidate Jill Derby of northern Nevada, who has served on the University Board of Regents, has the advantage of running unopposed, while the three Republicans are engaged in a very competitive primary that will force them to spend money. Recent polling done by Research 2000 for The Reno Gazette-Journal and News 4 has shown the race to be competitive. One matchup, between Dawn Gibbons (R) and Jill Derby (D) showed Gibbons with 35% and Derby with 30%. [17]

New Hampshire

  • New Hamsphire's 1st congressional district— Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley is seeking a third term. He cannot plausibly be attacked as a conservative Bush clone, but Democrats are targeting him for defeat anyway. Democrats running against him include state House Minority Leader Jim Craig, state Representative Peter Sullivan, and Rye School Board member Gary Dodds. Geroge W. Bush is highly unpopular throughout New England, giving Democrats an opening.
  • New Hamsphire's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Charles Bass (R) is in a state that is trending towards the Democratic Party, in 2004 the Democrats unexpectedly captured the Governor's Mansion and also managed to win the presidential race in this state. Bass remains popular, however, winning reelection in 2004 with 58% percent of the vote while his district was won by John Kerry 52% to 47% in the presidential election. Bass is a self-described political moderate, and is being challenged in the primary by Berlin Mayor Bob Danderson, who opposes some of Bass's more liberal views, such as drilling for oil in the arctic. The likely Democratic nominee is the 2004 challenger Paul Hodes, an attorney. A UNH poll from May 4, 2006 shows Hodes a lot closer to Bass than expected, having a 42% lead over Hodes, who has 35%.

New Jersey

  • New Jersey's 5th congressional district— Scott Garrett (R) won with 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in a normally Republican district. His strongly conservative views have also been the subject of some controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina victims. Democrat Paul Aronsohn is planning to challenge Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity. Garret is also facing a primary challenge against Michael Cino.

New Mexico

New York

  • New York's 13th congressional district— Since easily winning a special election in 1997, conservative Republican incumbent Vito Fossella had long been reelected without trouble in this district, based in Staten Island and the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn. But in 2004, his share of the vote dropped dramatically against an under funded opponent. This caught the attention of Democrats, who now are making this race a priority. Lawyer and Bay Ridge community leader Stephen Harrison is the only announced Democratic candidate in the race. New York City Councilman Bill de Blasio is thinking of running as well, and he's well-liked in his Brooklyn-area council district. Helping Democrats is that the proposed Dubai port takeover was more unpopular here than perhaps anywhere else in the country. However, Staten Island dominates the district's population and is historically mistrustful of the rest of the city. This will help Fossella, who once represented Staten Island on the city council, himself.
  • New York's 20th congressional district— Incumbent John E. Sweeney (R) has never really had any election troubles up until now. Sweeney has faced controversy over his drunken appearance at a registered party at Alpha Delta Phi on April 22 at Union College, Some witnesses claim he was 'very loud and cursing,' and also slurring his words while trying to discuss policy with the students. Sweeney also faces controversy over a sexist remark he made about his opponent Kirsten Gillibrand claiming that she was "a pretty face".
  • New York's 24th congressional district— Incumbent Sherwood Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement after twenty-four years, making this a seat of considerable focus for the democrats in the follow up to the mid terms. Boehlert is considered a moderate republican, and the district is considered to be a swing district. George Bush won this district by 53% in the 2004 election, but by 3,000 votes, in the 2000 presidential election. The likely Republican nominee will be state Senator Ray Meier, while the likely Democratic nominee will be Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri, but both face primaries. [19]