Summary of Hispanics and the 2006 Election

WASHINGTON (Pew) October 2, 2006 — An incremental increase in the size of the Hispanic electorate is expected this November, according to research conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center and released Monday. The Hispanic share of the total U.S. electorate is expected to grow to 8.6 percent, compared to 8.2 percent in 2004 and 7.4 percent in 2000.

The center has drafted three possible scenarios for Hispanic participation in the midterm elections, ranging from 10 million registered voters in the lowest to 12.3 million in the highest. In contrast, for the 2004 general election 9.3 million Hispanics were registered to vote.

The lowest scenario assumes the same rate of voter registration this year as was seen in 2004, and applies that rate – 58 percent – to the now larger Hispanic population. In 2004 there were 16.1 million Hispanics who were U.S. citizens over age 18, and this year there are 17.2 million, according to Pew estimates.

In the middle scenario, Pew posts a voter participation rate near that of African Americans in 2004. Using Pew's figure of 67 percent would generate 11.5 million registered Latino voters. Pew notes, without comment, that Hispanics register to vote at much lower rates than either eligible Anglos (75 percent) or African Americans (69 percent).

In the last and most optimistic scenario, Pew assumes that Hispanics will register at the same rate as Anglos did in 2004. That 71 percent figure would generate 12.3 million registered Hispanic voters.

Pew does not discuss what might spur additional Hispanic participation in the voting process, but Hispanic politicians and activists have been encouraging registration all summer as a result in proposed changes to immigration law being discussed in Washington, D.C. One of the clarion calls during widespread marches meant in part to demonstrate Hispanic clout was the refrain, "Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote."

Just Friday, for example, the National Hispanic Leadership Agenda called for a voter registration drive called "It Starts With You" or "Empieza Contigo." "The most important message is to go vote and mobilize your families and your organizations."

The Pew report does take a closer look at who among Hispanics could vote. Not surprisingly, the native born are the largest component, 12.9 million eligible voters out of the 17.2 million. That segment is also seeing the fastest growth in the electorate, especially among second-generation citizens.

The report also notes that in addition to participating at lower rates than other ethnicities, Hispanics are also less well-represented due to two demographic factors: immigration status and age.

"Eligible voters make up a significantly smaller share of the Hispanic population than in other racial/ethnic groups because so many Latinos are either adults who are not citizens or citizens who are not yet of voting age," the report says. "For example, 39 percent of Hispanics are eligible voters compared to 77 percent of whites and 65 percent of blacks."