PHOENIX (By Daniel
Gonzαlez, Arizona Republic) November 27, 2006
Comprehensive immigration reform is
not a certainty under the newly elected Democratic Congress because of
deep political divisions, pressure from labor unions and re-election
concerns.
Supporters of a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented
immigrants and a temporary-worker program cheered when many Republicans,
including immigration hard-liners, lost re-election this month, allowing
Democrats to take control of the House and Senate.
Democrats are perceived as more sympathetic toward those measures, but
reforms still face a tough, uphill battle in Congress, immigration
analysts say.
Congress will have a short window of opportunity, perhaps nine months,
to pass an immigration package before the start of the 2008 presidential
election cycle, making a bipartisan deal unlikely.
If nothing happens by then, many analysts think the issue will be dead
for two more years, leaving such states as Arizona, where voters this
month passed four anti-illegal immigration ballot measures, to continue
grappling with the issue at the state and local level.
"In other words, (comprehensive immigration reform) ain't a slam-dunk,"
said Jeanne Butterfield, executive director of the American Immigration
Lawyers Association, a national association of 10,000 attorneys and law
professors who practice and teach immigration law.
President Bush was rebuffed this year by the conservative wing of his
own party after he tried to get Congress to pass a comprehensive
immigration plan that included a path to legalization for undocumented
immigrants and a temporary-worker program, in addition to tighter border
security and stricter work site enforcement.
Now, with Bush looking to salvage some sort of legacy during his last
two years in office, he will be eager to see Congress pass reforms
quickly, analysts said. But immigration is not atop incoming House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi's list of priorities, making reform difficult to
accomplish.
Up to Democrats
Both parties are divided over comprehensive immigration reform. Some "blue dog" conservative Democrats elected to Congress this month campaigned on an enforcement-first platform that echoed the position of many conservative Republicans. They oppose allowing undocumented immigrants to earn legalization, calling it a form of amnesty that rewards lawbreakers.Some Democrats, traditional allies of labor unions, also have deep concerns about a guest-worker program. Although some unions see immigrant workers as a source of potential growth, others fear that opening the doors to more foreign workers could diminish labor conditions and wages.
The absence of immigration reform on Pelosi's list of priorities for the first 100 legislative hours also indicates to some analysts that Democrats see the issue as a political land mine that could cost them control of Congress in 2008.
"Pelosi's first obligation is getting Democrats re-elected, and championing green cards for illegal immigrants" isn't going to help, said John Keeley, director of communication for the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank that favors more restrictions on immigration.
Still, Butterfield and others said they think that comprehensive immigration reform has a better chance of passing with Democrats in control of Congress. A legalization plan for undocumented immigrants could help Democrats court a larger share of the Latino vote, they say.
And, as the problem of illegal immigration continues to strain public resources in such states as Arizona, Democrats will be under pressure to address the issue before the next election.
"This is an opportunity for them to show they can govern," said Deborah Meyers, an analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute in Washington, D.C. "Someone is going to have to bite the bullet."
Arizona's stake in issue
Several members of Arizona's congressional delegation said they are optimistic that Congress will pass comprehensive immigration reform next year. As the main gateway for illegal crossings along the U.S.-Mexican border, Arizona has shouldered a disproportionate share of the costs related to illegal immigration."It may not be a slam-dunk but I think it's got a better shot than ever before," said Democrat Harry Mitchell, who this month won election to Arizona's 5th Congressional District seat by beating immigration hard-liner J.D. Hayworth, a Republican.
Mitchell said he doesn't think that voting in favor of a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants and a temporary-worker program could make him vulnerable in the 2008 election, should Hayworth try to reclaim the seat, as some analysts have speculated.
Mitchell said his victory indicated that voters favor a comprehensive approach to solving illegal immigration, not the hard-line enforcement approach championed by Hayworth, who opposes a guest-worker program.
"I think the position I took is not only the right decision, but the right one for this district," Mitchell said.
Mitchell will be one of four Democrats in Arizona's equally divided eight-member delegation. The others are Raul Grijalva, Ed Pastor and Gabrielle Giffords. All campaigned in favor of comprehensive immigration reform.
Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., who also favors comprehensive reform, said it has a better chance of passing with Democrats in control of Congress but will still need the majority support of Republicans to get through.
Arizona's other Republican House members, Rick Renzi, Trent Franks and John Shadegg, lean toward a secure-the-border-first approach on immigration.
The state's two senators, John McCain and Jon Kyl, both Republicans, support comprehensive immigration reform but disagree on the details. McCain favors a more-generous legalization program for undocumented immigrants already in the country. Kyl opposes temporary workers earning green cards.
Flake, one of the leading House supporters of comprehensive immigration reform legislation, said he plans to meet with Democratic leaders in December to begin discussing immigration reform legislation to introduce early next year.
"I think we saw very well what happened to Republicans when we punted on this issue," Flake said. "People aren't going to stand for two more years of inaction."
