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Immigration: First the March, Now the Vote

 

WASHINGTON (By Will Sullivan, US News) July 1, 2006 — Legislators may have needed a translator to tell them in April that the chants of "Hoy marchamos, maρana votamos" were part promise, part threat.

"Today we march, tomorrow we vote" became a major rallying cry for the millions who marched against bills in Congress to tighten immigration restrictions. Now, the immigrant-rights organizers have to perform a different type of translation, fulfilling their pledge to transform momentum from the spring's massive rallies into sustained political power at the ballot box.

The first major test of this transition will begin July 1, when the We Are America Alliance, a loose coalition opposing the proposed immigration legislation, formally kicks off "Democracy Summer," an effort to get 1 million immigrants naturalized or registered to vote by Election Day. Hundreds of events will take place in over 50 cities.

The program is aimed mainly at increasing the political clout of Hispanic immigrants. "I think what folks want to convey is that we are individuals that need to be reckoned with," said Germonique Jones of the Center for Community Change. "It's really more of a long-term strategy and plan to engage more people around the immigration issue so that they are voting for years to come."

Volunteers from Mi Familia Vota, another member of the We Are America Alliance, had new citizens lining up to register to vote after a naturalization ceremony in Philadelphia on Tuesday, said Rafael Collazo, the group's Pennsylvania director. During the event before the official Democracy Summer kickoff, his volunteers registered more than 700 of the 1,000 people who were naturalized, said Collazo, who attributed the enthusiasm to the immigration debate: "I got some feedback from people who said, 'That's the reason I'm here today at this ceremony. I'm a longtime legal resident, and I wanted to become a naturalized citizen specifically so I could vote.' "

The barriers to large-scale registration are daunting. According to a study released last year by the Pew Hispanic Center, only 39 percent of Latinos living in America are even eligible to vote, with disproportionately high numbers either too young to register or not citizens. Only 18 percent of the total Latino population voted in 2004, compared with 51 percent of whites and 39 percent of blacks.

Naturalizing eligible citizens could radically change that number, according to a study released by the Center for Community Change. The research found that the number of potential votes from immigrants eligible for citizenship and children of immigrants who will be eligible to vote by 2008 is larger than the 2004 vote differential between George W. Bush and John Kerry in 16 states, including such key presidential battlegrounds as Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In all, the study found that 12.4 million immigrants or children of immigrants could be registered to vote for the next president.

But for immigrants to have the decisive role the study suggests, the vast majority in some states would have to naturalize, register to vote, and vote for the same candidate. Additionally, Democrats, who have traditionally received a majority of Hispanic votes, already took nine of the 16 states in 2004.

Turning a tough immigration stance into a net loss for candidates is an uphill battle, said Randy Capps, an immigration researcher at the nonpartisan Urban Institute. "I think in the short term there are more potential voters who are anti-immigrant than are immigrants themselves," Capps said. "But that will change."

Early evidence does suggest that the immigration policy debate is having an effect. The U.S. Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration Services received 66,022 applications for citizenship in April, the last month for which data are available, compared with 56,587 during the same month last year, spokesperson Chris Bentley said. The number of downloaded citizenship applications also rose. Overall, Bentley noted, applications are up more than 15 percent in 2006. Since processing the applications usually takes seven to nine months, those naturalized through Democracy Summer's efforts will by and large not be able to cast ballots in November.

Susanne Jonas, a professor of Latin American and Latino studies at the University of California–Santa Cruz, described the spring's protests as a transformative experience for immigrants and Hispanic voters. Unlike blacks, she said, Latino voters historically have not cast their ballots overwhelmingly for one party, with exit polls in 2004 indicating that as many as 44 percent of Hispanic voters voted for George W. Bush.

Jonas predicted that Republicans will not receive such high numbers in the upcoming election but added that Democrats have failed to provide a strong alternative to secure a lasting bloc of Hispanic and immigrant voters. "They need to show that they're not going to compromise away the rights of immigrants," Jonas said. "If they want to keep people motivated and voting Democrat, they have a lot of work to do, which I don't think they've done just yet." Democratic National Committee spokesperson Luis Miranda noted that the party has run ads in English- and Spanish-language media criticizing Republicans for the immigration reform package in the House.

Opponents of the We Are America Alliance dispute the claim that Hispanic and immigrant voters will rally around illegal immigrants in November. "Many of those people deeply resent illegal immigration and are deeply offended by the fact that people who cut to the front of the line are going to be rewarded," said Ira Melhman, spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform. Republican National Committee spokesperson Danny Diaz said Republicans have seen consistently rising support from Hispanic voters, aided by voter registration efforts at some of the same sorts of events the We Are America Alliance is targeting. A retired Army colonel founded a group for Hispanics favoring tighter immigration laws in May called "You Don't Speak for Me."

Capps agreed that divisions exist between legal and illegal immigrants and said it is unclear whether legal immigrant and Hispanic voters will strongly identify with undocumented workers. Some Hispanics may oppose tough immigration laws because relatives, friends, or neighbors are illegal immigrants or because of concerns that they will be harassed for identification and face more scrutiny when looking for a job. But whether most Hispanics cast their ballots as a bloc ultimately comes down to whether organizers provide strong leadership on the issue, he said.

Questions linger about whether the partnership of immigrant advocacy groups, not to mention the collection of labor unions, religious leaders, and radio deejays that make up the We Are America Alliance, can hold together. "Each of these groups has a very clear identity of their own," Jones said. "To say that these groups will come together, I don't think any of us are prepared to think that far ahead."

But Mi Familia Vota Executive Director Jorge Mursuli expressed cautious optimism. "We've been this patchwork of Hispanic communities throughout the country, and now for the first time we have a lot of tributaries connecting us," Mursuli said. "Maybe they're not the Amazon River yet, but there's real solid communication."

Organizers will also face a challenge now that the negotiations on the House and Senate immigration packages have been delayed until at least the fall, Capps predicted.

"When something seems like an emergency, it's easy to get people mobilized," he said. "In the long term, you have to keep people updated and keep people interested."

Mursuli acknowledged that keeping voters engaged is critical for the alliance's success but said he doesn't expect politicians or the public will be able to return to looking the other way on the issue of immigration.

"There's no going back. It's either some kind of path to citizenship or something not so pleasant," said Mursuli. "The wink and the nod are gone for all practical purposes."

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