Immigration Deal May Not Have The Votes

2-year-old Tomasa Mendez, crying in her mother's arms because her father was suspected of being in the U.S. illegally, has become iconic in the immigration debate.

WASHINGTON (US News) May 18, 2007 — Administration officials and key senators from both parties reached what appears to be a landmark agreement to reform the nation's immigration laws. The deal is receiving extensive and largely positive media coverage. Major newspapers, this morning outline the main provisions in the compromise. Overall, two issues dominate much of the media commentary on the immigration compromise. The first one is the bipartisan nature of the agreement, which is being greeted with praise for those involved in the talks particularly Sen. Ted Kennedy. The second is worries that the bill won't pass the House. As George Stephanopoulos said on ABC World News, "Both Republicans and Democrats in the Senate say they think it can get through the Senate with more than 60 votes next week. But after that, it has to go to the House. That's where the political terrain gets very tough. ... There are political and substantive reasons. You have Democrats, including the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, who says the Senate bill has to be improved on the issues of family and guest workers. You have a lot of Republicans who don't like the legalization provisions at all. They call it amnesty. And finally, politically, you have a lot of vulnerable Democrats who say they will not go along with this bill."

The New York Times, in fact, quotes Rep. Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, saying, "Unless the White House produces 60 or 70 Republican votes in the House, it will be difficult to pass an immigration bill similar to the Senate proposal." In an editorial, the Los Angeles Times says that "the single most objectionable aspect of the plan is that it probably won't pass. ... Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) has already expressed 'serious concerns' about the bill, and the freshman class of Democrats does not seem enthusiastic." The Washington Times is even less optimistic, saying Senate passage of the bill is also "in doubt. Support seemed to crumble even as the deal was announced." The Times adds, "Conservative Republicans argued that the bill rewards illegal activity, while liberal Democrats said it is too draconian toward illegal aliens and too restrictive for future workers."

In a similar story, the Los Angeles Times says "the attacks from both left and right that met the proposal suggested the latest push for change, although representing a potential breakthrough, could again end in a stalemate. At the very least, the criticism showed that the bill's supporters would need to do a lot of arm-twisting on both sides of the aisle." Some Republicans appeared to be furious yesterday. NBC Nightly News showed Rep. Ted Poe saying, "It's like somebody that trespasses on your land, you give them a fine but they stay on your land. That's a form of amnesty." And the CBS Evening News interviewed Rep. James Sensenbrenner, another Republican, who said, "I think the deal stinks. ... I'm mad as heck." The Miami Herald quotes GOP Sen. Jim DeMint saying, "'I don't care how you try to spin it, this is amnesty," while the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes US Rep. Tom Price, "a Roswell Republican who joined the majority of the House GOP last year in pushing for an immigration bill focused almost exclusively on border security," also "issued a statement denouncing the new bill as 'amnesty.'"

The Administration tried to go on the offensive last night against the notion that the bill amounts to "amnesty." The CBS Evening News showed the President saying, "This is a bill where people who live here in our country will be treated without amnesty but without animosity." White House Press Secretary Tony Snow went on CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight (Dobbs' being a leading media opponent of "amnesty") pushing a similar message, and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff were on MSNBC and CNN defending the deal. Key conservative GOP senators also hit the airwaves. Appearing on CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight, GOP Sen. Jon Kyl whose opposition to last year's immigration bill did much to derail the legislation-- stressed that the bill "says until more than half of the 700 miles" of border fence "is built, nothing can happen here in the United States with the illegal immigrants that are here that's part of the trigger, but it doesn't stop with the 370 miles of fencing to be built. That is only the first step."

Media Revels In Bipartisanship Bliss

The bipartisan process that led to the Senate deal is being celebrated in media reports. ABC World News referred to the "rare Capitol Hill demonstration of bipartisanship." The compromise, added ABC, "would create a path for virtually every illegal immigrant to live and work in the US and start on the road to citizenship, to create a guest worker program, and to tighten US borders." The CBS Evening News said, "It's a complete reform of US immigration law as we know it, worked out by a bipartisan group of negotiators, including Senator Ted Kennedy, politically on the far left, and Saxby Chambliss, on the far right." The AP, Financial Times and The Politico run similar stories about the bipartisan spirit exhibited by negotiators. Sen. Kennedy's role in crafting the bill, in particular, is winning him accolades this morning. The Boston Globe, in a story featuring a photograph of a bipartisan group of ecstatic senators celebrating the deal, says "Kennedy, the Senate's consummate dealmaker -- still indefatigable at 75 -- pushed hard at his fellow Democrats, wavering Republican moderates, and even members of the Bush administration, insisting that the deal-makers work all night Wednesday to beat the deadline imposed by the Senate leadership." NBC Nightly News, meanwhile, credited "Kennedy and John McCain" for the deal, "not normally allies, but they agreed on this package."

Immigration Bill Faces Wall of Opposition

The compromise immigration plan unveiled Thursday by a coalition of Republicans and Democrats offers the best prospect for congressional action on the explosive issue this year — perhaps for several years to come.

But the attacks from both left and right that met the proposal suggested the latest push for change, although representing a potential breakthrough, could again end in a stalemate. At the very least, the criticism showed that the bill's supporters would need to do a lot of arm-twisting on both sides of the aisle.

"This is far from over," Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-Simi Valley) said, criticizing as "amnesty, amnesty and amnesty" the provision that provides illegal immigrant workers with a path to legal standing and citizenship.

The provisions on citizenship were by no means the only ones to come under fire.

Among Democrats, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada expressed "serious concerns about some aspects of this proposal, including the structure of the temporary worker program and undue limitations on family immigration."

Reid's statement was referring to parts of the measure that would set out conditions for temporarily letting foreign workers enter the United States, and to changes in the provisions that permit legal immigrants to bring family members into the country.

Another Democrat, Sen. Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota, said the guest worker program threatened to drive down U.S. wages.

"America's workers have enough downward pressure on their wages because of unfair trade deals and corporate outsourcing of millions of jobs every year," he said in a statement. "The last thing they need now is to have an inflow of millions of more immigrants competing for their jobs at substandard wages."

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) signaled that he wanted to tighten border security and "repair the woefully inadequate legal immigration process before we move to an amnesty-based immigration system."

Among Republicans, Sen. Charles E. Grassley of Iowa objected to a provision that he said would give the Homeland Security Department "unlimited, open-ended access to all Social Security data, including confidential tax return information."

The provision Grassley challenged is designed to create a workable employment verification system. His statement said the provision would take a "wrecking ball" to "the balance between taxpayer privacy and legitimate law enforcement."

Still, the bipartisan Senate agreement — and its support across the political spectrum, including the backing of liberal Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.), conservative Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and President Bush — should improve its prospects.

"I like the chances," said Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.). "The fact that they have such a broad coalition in the Senate bodes well for the House."

Rep. George P. Radanovich (R-Mariposa), who has pushed for a guest worker program that would benefit his agricultural-rich district, predicted the measure would pass.

Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) called prospects bright. "I think there are a lot of people who want to see us do something in a comprehensive way," he said. But he acknowledged that he and other advocates of comprehensive changes in immigration policy had their work cut out to round up GOP support for the measure.

Rep. Adam H. Putnam (R-Fla.), the third-ranking Republican in the House, said, "I think there's a sense over here to attempt to solve the problem in a responsible way." But he said most of his colleagues were "keeping their powder dry until they have had an opportunity to see the details" of the Senate proposal.

Even with bipartisan Senate backing and Bush's support, some analysts said supporters would need to round up as many as 70 Republicans to get the measure through the House because of opposition from Democrats in conservative districts.

"If 70 is what they need, I think we've got 70 Republicans," Flake said. "There are a lot of Republicans over here who understand, if nothing else, the benefits of getting this behind us as an issue."

A number of House Republicans remained unbending in their opposition to anything they regarded as amounting to amnesty.

Gallegly said he wasn't swayed by support for the bill from conservative Republicans like Kyl. "This is amnesty, pure and simple," he said in a statement.

He continued: "If we grant this amnesty, we only encourage yet even more illegal immigration."

Noting that the bill would require the head of household to return to the country of origin to apply for the full family's permanent residency, Gallegly said, "Only one lawbreaker has to return to apply for permanent residency for a family of lawbreakers."

Andrew Whalen, a spokesman for freshman Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), said: "I can tell you that if it has anything resembling amnesty, it's going to be a no-go for the congressman."

Ninety-seven House members — all Republicans except Democrats Nancy E. Boyda of Kansas and Jim Marshall of Georgia — recently sent a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) calling on her "not to bring amnesty legislation to the House floor."

Marshall spokesman Douglas Moore said, "We are not in favor of any kind of amnesty for illegal immigrants."

Reid, the Senate majority leader, said, "We need to improve the bill as it moves through the legislative process."

Sen. Craig Thomas (R-Wyo.) complained in a statement that the compromise would end up costing taxpayers "trillions of dollars in entitlement spending" for immigrants moving on to the "already straining Social Security and Medicare system."