How Hispanics Voted in the 2006 Election

PHOENIX (Edited By Jon Garrido, Hispanic News) November 27, 2006 — Widely cited findings in the national exit polls suggest Hispanics tilted heavily in favor of the Democrats in the 2006 election, taking back a significant portion of the support Hispanics had granted Republicans just two years earlier.

This year, interest in the Hispanic vote was driven in great part by the immigration debate and its possible effects on the election. Would Hispanics punish the Republicans for the immigration position held by restrictionist hardliners in that party?

Exit polls, which are conducted on election day on behalf of a consortium of news organizations, can help guide the answers to these questions. And, indeed, some have looked at the numbers and concluded that the immigration debate was central to the Hispanic vote and that it hurt the Republican Party.

The 2006 national exit poll showed that in elections for the U.S. House of Representatives 69% of Hispanics voted for Democrats and 30% for Republicans. An analysis of exit polls in Senate and gubernatorial races around the country that produced a national estimate revealed essentially the same partisan preference. Meanwhile, exit polls conducted in eight states with large Hispanic populations by the William C. Velazquez Institute, a non-partisan think tank, estimated that Hispanic voters favored Democrats 67% to 29% in congressional races nationwide.

These exit poll results suggests a very substantial gain for the Democrats this year if you compare those numbers to what the exit polls showed in the 2004 presidential race. At that time, the national exit poll showed that President George W. Bush received 44% of the Hispanic vote.

Comparing exit polls from 2004 and 2006 suggests an 11-point swing in favor of the Democrats. Meanwhile, the swing among white voters was 6%. That suggests the movement away from the GOP was greater among Hispanics than whites. The change among black voters, who consistently back Democrats by an overwhelming majority, was much more modest. The 2004-2006 comparison suggests something distinctive occurred among Hispanic voters this year that rewarded the Democrats and punished the Republicans.

2002 and 2004 Mid-term Elections

The 2002 mid-term elections offer another point of comparison. That year, the national exit poll showed that Hispanics went 61% vs. 37% in favor of the Democrats while whites split 38% to 57% in favor of the Republicans, as has been consistent in recent elections. Comparing this year’s mid-term election to the 2002 mid-term election shows that the Democratic gains among Hispanics and whites were roughly similar. The 2002/2006 comparison suggests that Hispanic voters this year did not behave distinctively but rather reflected a broader political trend that was also evident among whites.

After the 2004 election, some Republican strategists argued Bush’s strong showing among Hispanics that year could lead to a political realignment that would gradually erode the Democrats long-standing two-to-one advantage in party identification among Hispanic voters.

Hispanic Split

An analysis of exit polls in several races this year shows that some Republican candidates in states with sizeable Hispanic electorates significantly out performed their party’s showing on the national level and received shares of the Hispanic vote comparable to Bush in 2004. Indeed, in many cases Hispanics evidently split their ballots between Democrats and Republicans.

In California, which is home to more than a quarter of all Hispanic voters in the country, Democrat Dianne Feinstein easily won reelection to the Senate, receiving 71% of the Hispanic vote. Meanwhile, Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, won reelection as governor with 39% backing from Hispanics. Black voters in California proved a more reliable Democratic constituency, giving Schwarzenegger only 27%.

In Texas, Republican incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchinson won reelection to the Senate in a landslide and received 44% of the Hispanic vote. But as in California, blacks went more solidly Democratic, giving Hutchinson 26%. In Nevada, Republican Jim Gibbons won the race for governor against Democrat Dina Titus, receiving 37% of the Hispanic vote and just 13% of the black vote.

Arizona, where Hispanics account for 17% of eligible voters, was widely viewed as a test case on voter sentiments towards immigration. Two Republican candidates for the House, Randy Graff and J.D. Hayworth, who made promises to crack down on illegal immigration the centerpiece of their campaigns, were defeated in districts that had been considered relatively safe for Republicans. Governor Janet Napolitano, a Democrat, won reelection with 67% of the Hispanic vote, about the same share Democrats received nationally in House races.

As important, almost half of Hispanic voters (48%) in Arizona also backed the referendum that made English the state’s official language. Among all voters in Arizona, that measure drew overwhelming support from those who said illegal immigration was extremely important and from those who said illegal immigrants should be deported. Again, almost one out of every two Hispanics sided with an issue that was heavily promoted by those in favor of a more restrictive immigration policy.

Impact of the Hispanic Vote on House and Senate Races

The Democrats scored a major victory on a national level with a net gain of 30 seats in the House of Representatives, giving them control for the first time since 1994. What role did Hispanic’s play in that outcome? Did the Hispanic 11% shift in favor of the Democrats help swing the tide in key races?

Hispanics made up 10% or more of the eligible voters in only 12 of these 75 races and were more than 20% in only one. Republican incumbents prevailed in 8 of the 12 close races in which Hispanics conceivably could have played a decisive role. Among these was the one closely-contested race in which Hispanics represented a sizeable share of the electorate. In New Mexico’s 1st district, where Hispanics made up 38% of the eligible voters, Heather Wilson, the Republican incumbent, narrowly defeated Patricia Madrid, the state’s attorney general and a Hispanic.

The four remaining races were won by Democrats. In California’s 11th district, where Hispanics are 16% of eligible voters, a Republican incumbent was defeated. In the other three— the Colorado 7th with 16% Hispanic eligible voters, the Texas 22nd with 17% Hispanic eligible voters and the Arizona 8th with 15% Hispanic eligible voters — Democrats won open seats that had been previously held by Republicans.

In sum, close races in which Hispanics made up 10% or more of the electorate produced a net gain of four seats for the Democrats.

Another way of assessing the impact of the Hispanic vote is to look at the 30 House seats picked up by the Democrats. On average, Hispanics make up 4.5% of the eligible voters in those 30 districts. In 18 of the turnover districts Hispanics made up less than 2% of the electorate. Hispanics made up 10% or more of the voters in four districts that produced a net Democratic gain, the same four districts decided in close races noted above.

Finally, the impact of the Hispanic vote can be assessed by examining the outcome in Congressional districts with large shares of Hispanic eligible voters. This year Hispanics made up 30% or more of the eligible voters in 35 districts. The Hispanic share of eligible voters in those districts ranged from 31% to 75% of the total, so a substantial swing among those Hispanic voters could have a decisive impact. More than a third (36%) of all Hispanic voters live in those districts.

The Democrats took control of the Senate by winning six seats previously held by Republicans. These races took place in states with relatively small shares of Hispanic voters: Rhode Island (5.4%), Virginia (2.7%), Pennsylvania (2.7%), Montana (1.8%), Missouri (1.5%) & Ohio (1.5%).

Among other closely watched Senate races, Hispanics are a sizeable presence only in Connecticut and New Jersey.

In Connecticut, where Hispanics are 7.7% of all voters, the exit polls showed Hispanics favoring Ned Lamont, the Democratic nominee, by 58% to 32% over Joe Lieberman, the Democratic incumbent who ran as an independent after losing the Democratic primary. Lieberman won the election with a 10-point margin.

In New Jersey, where Hispanics are 10.2% of all eligible voters, the exit polls showed Hispanics favoring Robert Menendez, the Democratic incumbent, by 71% to 28% over the Republican candidate, Thomas Kean, Jr. In contrast, Sen. John Kerry took 56% of the Hispanic vote in New Jersey in his 2004 presidential campaign. After a hard fought campaign, Menendez won handily, 53% to 45%.

How many Hispanics voted?

Determining how many Hispanics turned out to vote and comparing levels of participation from one election to another is complicated. Hispanics made up 8.6% of the nation’s eligible voters this year. That is a small enough share of the total vote that a relatively small deviation in the way turnout is allocated among various racial and ethnic groups could produce a very substantial shift in the number of ballots case by Hispanic voters.

For example, a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5% in the race/ethnic allocation of votes in the 2004 presidential election would produce a range of estimates for Hispanic turnout of roughly between 5.7 million and 9.5 million votes. Exit polls also offer varying estimates of the distribution of votes along racial and ethnic lines. In 2004, the national exit poll showed that Hispanics accounted for 8.4% of the vote while the state exit polls placed the estimate at 7.5%.

This year, the national exit poll calculated that Hispanics accounted for 8% of all votes cast in elections for the House of Representatives.