Hispanics will Determine the President of the USA in 2008

PHOENIX (Edited by Jon Garrido, Hispanic News) November 17, 2006 — American politics has always been defined or imprisoned by Mason and Dixon, by regional rifts engendered by slavery, the Civil War and the Bible Belt. But now the relevant names are Lewis and Clark. The land west of the Mississippi, especially west of the 100th meridian, is the new swing region — and the place where Democrats hope to win the White House. "It's our 21st-century-majority strategy," said Simon Rosenberg of the New Democratic Network.

The 2006 election highlighted the old paradigm — and the new. The Northeast turned a deeper blue. GOP moderates there are all but extinct; Democratic governors were elected by vast margins. The Republicans' Fortress South, up-armored with evangelicals by George W. Bush and Karl Rove, cracked at the perimeter but largely held. The "intermountain" West, meanwhile, was up for grabs. Democrats won the governorship in Colorado and now have won five of the region's eight statehouses since 2002. The GOP hung onto the governorship in Nevada and a key Senate seat in Arizona.

The westward trend is clear. For the first time, leaders of the House and Senate are from the Far West. Democrats put Nevada in a crucial early spot in the presidential-selection process, and will hold their convention in Denver.

As Hispanics grow in clout, so does the West, where most of the nation's 43 million Hispanics live. In 2004, 44 percent of Hispanic voters supported Bush; in 2006, only 29 percent did — driven away by the party's get-tough rhetoric on immigration. The key presidential swing states now: the cluster of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. The new map means politics could be less party-oriented, says Thomas F. Schaller, author of "Whistling Past Dixie." Westerners aren't "socialized to partisanship," he says. The GOP must hold the faith-based while appealing to the West.

Four states with significant numbers of Hispanic voters: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico will determine the next president of the United States.  The four, which Bush carried in 2004, have 29 electoral votes. Although between 40 and 44 percent of Hispanics voted for President Bush in 2004, almost 70 percent of Hispanic voters cast their lot for Democrats last week, according to exit polls.

Pollster Simon Rosenberg of the New Democrat Network says the loss of Hispanic support could represent "a game-changing shift for Republicans" heading into the 2008 elections. The apparent trend could be particularly troubling in the Southwest.

Jon Garrido, a 4th generation American Hispanic and the new national president of the Blue Dogs of the Democratic Party www.BlueDogs.US, believes American Hispanics with Catholic social mores–which often push them to oppose abortion and gay marriage–make them just the kind of "value voters" that can be lured by Democrats in increasing numbers in 2008.

"I think we'll see Arizona return to the swing state category," predicts Peter Brodnitz, another pollster who has closely followed the immigration issue. Arizona, which was closely contested in the 1992, 1996, and 2000 presidential elections, comfortably went for Bush in 2004.

Some Hispanics have argued that the shift could be relatively permanent, similar to what happened in California after the state voted to pass Proposition 187 in 1994, a measure supported by many Republicans that would have restricted illegal immigrants' access to education and healthcare. In 1996, roughly 71 percent of Hispanics there voted to support President Bill Clinton. That pattern has largely held.

The appointment of Florida Sen. Mel Martinez as the new leader of the Republican National Committee in part reflects an acknowledgment by the party of the dramatic shift toward Democrats in Hispanic voting patterns this year.

Martinez will have no success for the Republicans in 2006 cut off their noses to spite their faces by bashing Hispanics.

The only similarity Hispanics now have with elephants is Hispanics have long memories and Republicans like Dobbs, Buchanan, Tancredo, Sensenbrenner, Pearce, Burns with the biggest loudmouth racist Hayworth will long be remembered as anti Hispanic. Even Gordon a Democrat bashing this year's marches will be remembered. As American Hispanics gain in the electorate, those that bash Hispanics will eventually fall by the wayside. Such is American politics.